| 梁朝惠,曹吉喆,李鲲鹏,刘苗苗.中国老年人跌倒现状及趋势[J].济宁医学院学报,2025,48(4):353-358 |
| 中国老年人跌倒现状及趋势 |
| The incidence and trend of falls among the elderly in China |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-30 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-9760.2025.04.013 |
| 中文关键词: 老年人;跌倒发生率;Meta分析;指数平滑法 |
| 英文关键词: Elderly;Fall incidence;Meta-analysis;Exponential smoothing method |
| 基金项目:济宁医学院本科教学改革研究项目(yb202303);济宁医学院创新项目(CX2023161) |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 梁朝惠 | 济宁医学院公共卫学院, 济宁, 272013 | | | 曹吉喆 | 济宁医学院公共卫学院, 济宁, 272013 | | | 李鲲鹏 | 济宁医学院公共卫学院, 济宁, 272013 | | | 刘苗苗 | 济宁医学院公共卫学院, 济宁, 272013 | miao1206@126.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 了解中国老年人跌倒状况及相关影响因素,对老年人跌倒发生率数据进行系统分析。方法 收集2002年1月1日至2023年12月31日发表的有关中国老年人跌倒发生率的现况研究。筛选文献并对其进行质量评价和数据提取。利用Stata12.0软件进行数据分析;利用SPSS软件的指数平滑模型对老年人跌倒发生率进行趋势预测。结果 共纳入23个横断面研究,总样本量为99 306例。我国老年人的跌倒发生率为12.4%(95%CI:10.0%~14.9%)。其中老年女性跌倒发生率为20.6%,显著高于老年男性(17.2%);随着年龄的增长,老年人跌倒发生率呈上升趋势(χ2趋=471.29,P＜0.001);农村老年人跌倒发生率为21.9%,显著高于城市老年人跌倒发生率(20.3%);独居老年人跌倒发生率(24.7%)高于非独居老年人(22.6%);文化程度越高,老年人跌倒发生率越低(χ2趋=1 368.17,P＜0.001)。指数平滑法模型预测显示未来3年中国老年人跌倒发生率呈现下降趋势。结论 我国老年人跌倒高发,应加强对高危老年人跌倒的预防。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the incidence and influencing factors of falls among the Chinese elderly through systematic review. Methods Cross-sectional studies on fall incidence among Chinese elderly published between January 1,2002 and December 31,2023,were systematically collected.Data analysis was performed using.Stata 12.0 softwere;trend predictions for the incidence of falls among older adults were made using the exponential smoothing model in SPSS softwere. Result A total of 23 cross-sectional studies with a total sample size of 99306 were included.The results showed that the incidence of fall in the elderly was 12.4% (95%CI:10.0%~14.9%).The incidence of fall in elderly women was 20.6%,which was significantly higher than that in elderly men.The incidence of fall in the elderly increased with the increase of age (χ2=471.29,P＜0.001).The incidence of fall in rural elderly was 21.9%,which was significantly higher than that in urban elderly (20.3%).The elderly living alone had a higher rate of falling (24.7% vs 22.6%).Higher educational attainment correlated with lower fall incidence (χ2=1368.17,P＜0.001).Exponential smoothing model forecasts a declining trend in China's elderly fall rate over the next three years. Conclusion The incidence of fall is high among elderly individuals in China.Special attention should be paid to elderly who are at risk of fall. |
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