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| 中国老年人跌倒现状及趋势分析 |
| Analysis of the incidence and trend of fall among the elderly in China |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-30 修订日期：2025-03-25 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 老年人 跌倒 发生率 meta分析 指数平滑法 |
| 英文关键词: Elderly, fall, Incidence, meta-analysis, exponential smoothing |
| 基金项目:济宁医学院创新训练项目(cx2023161)和济宁医学院本科教学改革研究项目(yb202303) |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 梁朝惠 | 济宁医学院 | 272002 | | 曹吉喆 | 济宁医学院 | | | 李鲲鹏 | 济宁医学院 | | | 刘苗苗* | 济宁医学院 | 272002 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 为了了解中国老年人跌倒状况及相关影响因素，对老年人跌倒发生率数据进行系统分析。方法 收集2002年1月1日至2023年12月31日发表的有关中国老年人跌倒发生率的现况研究。筛选文献并对其进行质量评价和数据提取。利用Stata12.0软件进行数据分析；利用SPSS软件的指数平滑模型对老年人跌倒发生率进行趋势预测。结果 共纳入23个横断面研究，总样本量为99306例。结果显示我国老年人的跌倒发生率为12.4%（95%CI：10.0%~14.9%）。其中老年女性跌倒发生率为20.6%，显著高于老年男性；随着年龄的增长，老年人跌倒发生率呈上升趋势（=372.714，P＜0.01）；农村老年人跌倒发生率为21.9%，显著高于城市老年人跌倒发生率（20.3%）；独居老年人跌倒发生率（24.7%）高于非独居老年人（22.6%）；文化程度越高，老年人跌倒发生率越低（=1344.323，P＜0.01）。指数平滑法模型预测显示未来3年中国老年人跌倒发生率呈现下降趋势。结论 我国老年人跌倒高发，女性、高龄、独居、文化程度低等因素是老年人跌倒的危险因素，应加强对高危老年人跌倒的预防。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Abstract】 Objective To analysis the incidence and influencing factors of fall among the Chinese elderly through systematic review. Methods A literature search on incidence of fall was conducted. The literature was independently screened by two students according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Meta-analysis was performed by using Stata 12.0 software. Result A total of 23 cross-sectional studies with a total sample size of 99306 were included. The results showed that the incidence of fall in the elderly was 12.4%（95%CI：10.0%~14.9%）. The incidence of fall in elderly women was 20.6%, which was significantly higher than that in elderly men. The incidence of fall in the elderly increased with the increase of age. The incidence of fall in rural elderly was 21.9%, which was significantly higher than that in urban elderly (20.3%). The elderly living alone had a higher rate of falling (24.7% VS. 22.6%). Exponential smoothing model forecasts a declining trend in China's elderly fall rate over the next three years.Conclusion The incidence of fall is high among elderly. Female, old age, living alone and low education level are the risk factors for fall in the elderly. Special attention should be paid to elderly who are at risk of fall. |
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