| 黄孝华,陈梦奇,杨丹,迟晨汝,邵明,周志庆,刘欢.安徽省老年人抑郁风险预测模型的构建与验证[J].济宁医学院学报,2024,47(4):300-305 |
| 安徽省老年人抑郁风险预测模型的构建与验证 |
| Construction and validation of a depression risk prediction model for the elderly in Anhui province |
| 投稿时间：2024-03-21 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-9760.2024.04.007 |
| 中文关键词: 老年人;抑郁;预测模型;验证;影响因素 |
| 英文关键词: Elderly;Depression;Prediction model;Validation;Influencing factors |
| 基金项目:皖医弋矶山医院管理与服务创新项目(CX2022013);安徽省新时代育人质量工程项目(2022jyjxggyj338);皖南医学院校级科研项目(SJD202305) |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 黄孝华 | 皖南医学院研究生学院, 芜湖 241002 | | | 陈梦奇 | 皖南医学院研究生学院, 芜湖 241002 | | | 杨丹 | 皖南医学院研究生学院, 芜湖 241002 | | | 迟晨汝 | 皖南医学院研究生学院, 芜湖 241002 | | | 邵明 | 皖南医学院研究生学院, 芜湖 241002 | | | 周志庆 | 皖南医学院研究生学院, 芜湖 241002
皖南医学院第一附属医院弋矶山医院护理部, 芜湖 241001 | 1274467404@ qq.com | | 刘欢 | 皖南医学院第一附属医院弋矶山医院护理部, 芜湖 241001 | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 探究安徽省老年人的抑郁现状及其影响因素,构建并验证当地老年人抑郁风险预测模型。方法 2023年12月—2024年1月,采取便利抽样法抽取987名安徽省60岁及以上老年人作为研究对象,采用自编人口学调查表、健康问卷抑郁症状量表(PHQ-9)、社会支持指数量表(OSS-3)、衰弱指数量表(FRAIL)、肌少症筛查问卷(SARC-F)进行调查,采用二分类logistic回归分析探讨安徽省老年人抑郁症状的影响因素,构建抑郁风险预测模型。结果 987名老年人中,抑郁症状发生率为35.16%。患有慢性病(OR=1.401)、近两年住院多次(1～2次:OR=1.922;≥3次:OR=2.788)、社会支持水平差(中等支持:OR=0.441;强支持:OR=0.101)、衰弱(OR=2.418)、肌少症(OR=3.223)为安徽省老年人抑郁症状的独立影响因素(P＜0.05),基于以上因素建立并绘制列线图模型,ROC曲线下面积为0.806(95%CI:0.779～0.834),H-L值定量分析得出列线图模型拟合度结果显示χ2＝10.705,P=0.219。结论 本研究构建的抑郁风险预测模型预测性能较好,为当地医护工作者提前筛选抑郁发生的高风险人群,并提前采取干预措施提供参考依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To explore the current situation of depression and its influencing factors among the elderly in Anhui Province,and to construct and verify a prediction model of depression risk among the local elderly. Methods From December 2023 to January 2024.987elderly people aged 60 years and above in Anhui Province were selected by convenience sampling method as the study subjects,and were investigated by self-compiled demographic questionnaire,the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9),the Oslo Social Support Scale-3 (OSS-3),the FRAIL Scale for frailty assessment (FRAIL),and the SARC-F questionnaire for sarcopenia screening (SARC-F).Dichotomous logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing depression symptoms among the elderly in Anhui Province and to construct a depression risk prediction model. Results The incidence rate of depression symptoms among 987 elderly people was 35.16%.The results of logistic regression analysis showed that suffer from chronic disease (OR=1.410),number of hospitalisations in the last two years (1~2:OR=1.922;≥3:OR=2.788),social support(medium support:OR=0.441;strong support:OR=0.101),weakness (OR=2.418) and sarcopenia (OR=3.223) are the independent factors influencing the depression among elderly in Anhui Province (P＜0.05).Based on the above factors to build a prediction model and draw a nomogram model,the area under curve (AUC) was 0.806,and the quantitative analysis of the H-L value yielded the results of the fit of the column-line diagram model showed χ2=10.705,P=0.219. Conclusion In this study,the constructed a depression risk prediction model has good prediction performance and provides a reference basis for local health care workers to screen the high-risk group of depression in advance and can take intervention measures in advance. |
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