| 魏莎莎,张宁,苏婷婷,朱秀丽.老年高血压患者餐后低血压风险列线图模型构建与验证[J].济宁医学院学报,2024,47(4):290-294 |
| 老年高血压患者餐后低血压风险列线图模型构建与验证 |
| Construction and validation of a nomogram model for predicting postprandial hypotension risk in elderly patients with hypertension |
| 投稿时间：2024-05-05 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-9760.2024.04.005 |
| 中文关键词: 高血压患者;餐后低血压;列线图;低密度脂蛋白 |
| 英文关键词: Hypertensive patients;Postprandial hypotension;Nomogram;Low-density lipoprotein |
| 基金项目: |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 魏莎莎 | 青岛大学医学部护理学院, 青岛 266071
山东颐养健康集团淄博医院, 淄博 255100 | | | 张宁 | 山东颐养健康集团淄博医院, 淄博 255100 | | | 苏婷婷 | 山东颐养健康集团淄博医院, 淄博 255100 | | | 朱秀丽 | 青岛大学医学部护理学院, 青岛 266071 | 15820022927@ 163 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 探索老年高血压患者餐后低血压(PPH)风险因素,构建餐后低血压风险预测模型,为老年高血压患者餐后低血压预防与管理提供理论依据。方法 采用便利抽样法,于2023年9月—12月选取山东省某三级乙等综合性医院的343例老年高血压患者为研究对象。通过Lasso回归以及二元logistic回归筛选危险因素,构建风险预测列线图模型;采用受试者操作特征曲线(ROC)和Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验评价模型的区分度和校准度;通过Bootstrap重复抽样法对模型进行内部验证。结果 最终纳入年龄、长期高碳水饮食、服用降压药时间、餐前收缩压水平、低密度脂蛋白和糖尿病病史6个因素。模型具有较好的拟合度,ROC曲线下面积为0.887(P＜0.001),Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验(χ2=7.487,P=0.485),Bootstrap内部验证法结果显示Nomogram模型的校准曲线和理想曲线基本重合,拟合良好。结论 老年高血压患者餐后低血压风险预测模型具有良好的拟合度与预测效果。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To explore the risk factors of postprandial hypotension (PPH) in elderly hypertensive patients,construct a risk prediction model for postprandial hypotension,and provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and management of postprandial hypotension in elderly hypertensive patients. Methods A total of 343 hypertensive patients from a tertiary general hospital in Shandong Province were selected using convenience sampling from September to December 2023.Risk factors were screened using LASSO regression and binary logistic regression,and a risk prediction nomogram model was constructed.The discrimination and calibration of the model were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.The model was internally validated using the Bootstrap resampling method. Results Six factors were finally included in the model:age,long-term high-carbohydrate diet,time of taking antihypertensive medication,pre-meal systolic blood pressure level,low-density lipoprotein,and history of diabetes.The model had good fit,with an area under the ROC curve of 0.887 (P＜0.001).The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (χ2=7.487,P=0.485).The Bootstrap internal validation method showed that the calibration curve of the Nomogram model basically overlapped with the ideal curve, indicating good fit. Conclusion The risk prediction model for postprandial hypotension in elderly hypertensive patients has good fit and predictive effect. |
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