|
| 泰安市日平均气温对居民死亡数的滞后影响分析* |
| Distributed lag effects in the relationship between daily mean temperature and mortality in Taian |
| 投稿时间：2015-11-16 修订日期：2015-11-17 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 气温;非意外死亡 分布滞后非线性模型 |
| 英文关键词: Temperature; Non-accidental death; Distributed lag nonlinear model |
| 基金项目:]山东省自然科学基金资助项目(项目编号：ZR2014HL092) |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 张璟* | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院 | 272067 | | 王文军 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院 | | | 张春菊 | 泰安市疾病预防控制中心 | |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 3962 |
| 全文下载次数: 276 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 了解泰安市日平均气温对不同性别、不同年龄居民每日非意外死亡的影响。方法 根据泰安市2009年1月1日至2013年12月31日每日居民死亡资料和同期气相指标及大气污染指标,采用分布滞后非线性模型,在控制长期趋势、季节趋势和其他混杂因素后,研究日平均气温与不同性别、不同年龄死亡数之间的关系。结果 泰安市日平均气温对不同性别、不同年龄人群死亡效应曲线均为J形,冷效应具有延迟性,在暴露当天出现,3 d左右达到最高,持续30 d。热效应表现为急性效应,以当天最高,后逐渐降低,在女性及老年人中呈现出明显的收获效应。结论 高温和寒冷均是泰安市居民每日死亡的危险因素,存在滞后效应,且低温效应的滞后时间长于高温。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To study the impact of daily mean temperature on mortality in different genders and different age groups in Taian. Methods With daily mortality, meteorological and air pollution data, we used a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to assess the effects of daily mean temperature on deaths (non-accidental for male, female, ＜65 years group and ≥65 years group) adjusting for the secular trend, seasonal trend and other confounders. Results A J-shaped relationship was found consistently between daily mean temperature and non-accidental deaths in different genders and different age groups in Taian. Cold effects were delayed, highest in 3 days and persisted for 30 days. Hot effects were acute and highest in the first day, reduced gradually, and were followed by mortality displacement in female and ≥65 years group. Conclusions In Taian, cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality with delayed effects. The effects of cold last longer than the effects of heat. |
|
View Fulltext
查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
|
|
|
