| 李鹏,于天召,葛康峰,郭瑞瑞,林源慧,张璟,王文军.2014-2017年济宁市大气污染物对流感发病的影响及预警[J].济宁医学院学报,2021,44(3):153-157 |
| 2014-2017年济宁市大气污染物对流感发病的影响及预警 |
| Impact of air pollutants on influenza incidence in Jining city from 2009 to 2017 and its early warning |
| 投稿时间：2021-03-26 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-9760.2021.03.001 |
| 中文关键词: 流感;大气污染物;滞后效应;预警模型 |
| 英文关键词: Influenza;Air pollutants;Lag effect;Early warning model |
| 基金项目:山东省高等学校科技计划项目（J16LD53） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 李鹏 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院 | | | 于天召 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院 | | | 葛康峰 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院 | | | 郭瑞瑞 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院 | | | 林源慧 | 济宁医学院口腔医学院, 济宁 272013 | | | 张璟 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院 | | | 王文军 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院 | wwjun1973@163.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 探讨济宁市大气污染物对流行性感冒（流感）发病的影响规律，建立模型确定大气污染物对其发病的作用强度和作用特点，为相关部门制定流感防控措施提供依据。方法 收集2014-2017年济宁市每日流感发病数据、每日空气质量指数以及每日6种大气污染物PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、CO、O3的浓度数据，采用时间分层病例交叉分析与分布滞后非线性模型相结合，建立每日污染物浓度与每日流感发病数模型，计算各种大气污染物对流感发病的作用强度（RR）及作用特点（滞后时间）。结果 2014-2017年济宁市确诊上报流感病例1981例。其中男性1049例，女性932例。不同种类的污染物（PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、CO和O3）对不同年龄段人群（0岁~、3岁~、15岁~）的发病作用和滞后天数不同，流感发病风险随大气污染物浓度的升高而增大。结论 大气污染物浓度改变，可增加流感发病风险，可根据其对不同人群的作用强度、作用特点，制定干预措施，在流感高发季节提前进行预防。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To study the rule of air pollutants on influenza(flu) in Jining city,to establish a model to determine the intensity and characteristics of the impact of air pollutants on flu,and to provide the basis for the relevant departments for flu control measures.Methods Data of daily flu incidence,air quality index,and six air pollutants concentrations (PM2.5,PM10,SO2,NO2,CO,and O3) was collected from 2009 to 2017 in Jining city.Time-stratified case-crossover analysis and distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) were used to establish a model of the daily flu incidence and daily air pollutants concentration to calculate the relative risk (RR) and lag days of six air pollutants on flu onset.Results From 2014 to 2017,1981 flu cases were reported among which 1049 were males and 932 were females.Different air pollutants (PM2.5,PM10,SO2,NO2,CO,and O3) had different impacts in three age groups (0y~,3y~,15y~) with different lag structures.The risk of flu onset increased with air pollutants concentration increasing.Conclusion Increased concentration of air pollutants can increase the risk of flu onset.Interventions can be made according to the modes and characteristics of air pollutants in different age groups.Measures can be taken in advance to prevent and control flu during the high-incidence seasons. |
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